While the upcoming presidential election is capturing much of the nation’s attention, the race for control of the Senate seems to be flying under the radar though is just as important.

To secure a majority in the Senate, a party must hold at least 51 seats. However, in the event of a 50-50 split, the party that wins the presidency gains control of the Senate with the vice-president’s tie-breaking vote. Currently, Democrats hold a narrow 51-49 majority, with the help of four independent Senators who caucus with them.

Unlike the House of Representatives, where every Member faces reelection every two years, only one-third of Senators face reelection each election cycle. This year, 34 Senators are up for reelection. However, the Senators running for reelection are not evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans. Democrats’ slim majority and a map that favors Republicans means the Senate majority could very easily shift to Republicans, potentially paving the way for significant legislative changes depending on the outcomes of the presidential and House races.

Democrat Held Seats

The Cook Political Report (CPR) provides an assessment of how competitive each Senate race appears to be. Of the 23 seats up for reelection currently held by Democrats, CPR considers eight of these seats to be close races and hard to predict. Democrats face an uphill battle to defend these competitive seats and have few (if any) opportunities to gain new seats. Democrats can only afford to lose one or two net seats depending on the outcome of the Presidential election.

To start, long-time Democrat (recently turned Independent) Joe Manchin (I-WV) is retiring. Manchin has been an anomaly—a Democrat holding his seat in a deep-red state for 14 years. His retirement all but guarantees that Republican candidate Governor Jim Justice will win the seat. CPR also places this race as a solid Republican seat in its assessment, likely leading to a 50-50 Senate split before examining the other more competitive races. 

Montana has also become a critical battleground this election as incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester is facing a tough challenge from Republican Tim Sheehy. Republicans are hoping this is a seat they can pick up, with CPR’s assessment also predicting that the race will lean Republican. However, Tester has a history of winning in this traditionally red state. Political analysts won’t count him out given this history. 

Three other states are emerging as extremely competitive and highly unpredictable races. Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is in a tight race against Republican candidate Berni Moreno. The race has tightened throughout the campaign.

The race to fill retiring Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow’s (D-MI) seat is another competitive election to watch. Democratic Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin is in a close race against former Republican Representative Mike Rogers.

 In Wisconsin, Democrat Tammy Baldwin is defending her seat against Republican Eric Hovde, and there is no clear indication of who has a better chance of taking the seat.

Michigan and Wisconsin are both key battleground states in the presidential election. The presidential campaign is sure to impact the down ballot races such as the Senate.

The last three races CPR is reporting as competitive amongst the current Democrat-held seats are ones that CPR believes are leaning democrat but still aren’t guaranteed. In Arizona, Democrat Ruben Gallego holds a narrow lead over Republican Kari Lake in the race to replace independent Senator Krysten Sinema who caucuses with Democrats. In Pennsylvania, Democrat incumbent Bob Casey has a slight edge over Republican Dave McCormick. Lastly, in Nevada, the assessment is leaning in favor of Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen keeping her seat in the race against Republican Sam Brown.

Republican Held Seats

Of the 11 seats currently held by Republicans, the only race that has shown to be slightly (and surprisingly) competitive is the Texas race between incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz and Democratic nominee Rep. Collin Allred. CPR’s assessment of this contest is that Cruz currently has the advantage, but the report still considers it a competitive race.

Conclusion

With so many races within the margin of error, the battle for Senate Control is hard to predict. However, it is clear that it will be very difficult for Democrats to maintain control of the Senate. The result will play a crucial role in shaping both the next few years of policy and influencing the long-term direction of the country. As Election Day approaches, money is pouring into all of these critical races as both parties are gearing up for a close battle, each hoping to win control of the Senate. Control of the Senate has added importance to the presidential election. It will be much easier for a President to get their cabinet, judicial and other political appointees approved if the Senate is controlled by their party. Finally, it takes 60 votes to pass most legislation in the Senate. While gaining a majority is a notable accomplishment, neither party is expected to win 60 seats in this election cycle.

CMS published 2025 Medicare Advantage (Part C) and Medicare Part D Star Ratings. Seven plans received 5-star ratings.

In response to President Biden’s Executive Order to lower prescription drug costs, CMS is seeking feedback on the Medicare $2 Drug List Model. The model aims to provide beneficiaries with affordable access to generic drug medications through a fixed copayment of no more than $2 per drug for a month’s supply. 

CMS published a case study on successfully identifying fraud in claims for urinary catheters. 

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) settled with a nonprofit physician group in Southern California over a ransomware attack that exposed the health information of 206,695 individuals. The case highlights the uptick of ransomware attacks in healthcare and the need for systems to enforce security measures to prevent further attacks. 

CMS has proposed a rule for 2026 that would increase user fees for Affordable Care Act plans sold on both federal and state exchanges if tax subsidies aren’t extended. Additionally, the rule proposes to increase regulation of insurance brokers by allowing CMS to suspend brokers who commit marketplace violations. 

Vice President Kamala Harris has proposed expanding Medicare to include coverage for certain vision and hearing services, as well as in-home health aide care, with funding coming from expanded Medicare drug pricing negotiations and reforms. This expansion would cover health aids for seniors, helping them with everyday activities and improving their quality of living. 

The CMS Office of the Actuary released its National Health Expenditure (NHE) projections, providing an analysis of how health spending is expected to grow based on data trends. The projections show that national health spending is predicted to outpace average GDP growth and per capita health care spending growth is going to slow down, while per capita prescription drug spending is expected to increase. 

The Congressional Budget Office provided a report estimating the budget effects of a policy where Medicare would cover anti-obesity medications (AOM). The report estimated that covering AOMs in Medicare would increase federal spending by about $35 billion over eight years. 

KFF conducted their annual Employer Health Benefits Survey (EHBS) and found that the average annual premium increased by 6% for single coverage and 7% for family coverage over the last year. KFF concluded that these numbers are a result of higher prices in health care and the rest of the economy as a whole.  

Proofpoint, Inc. and Ponemon Institute released their third annual survey on cybersecurity in healthcare. The report shows that over the last year, there has been an 88% increase in cyberattacks, with 92% of healthcare organizations reporting that they experienced at least one cyberattack and 69% stating that patient care was disrupted as a result as well.